Interesting papers from June, 2026
Gambling, Ozempic, newspapers, and corruption
Although Americans live in a democracy where some mix of the will of the people + truth is supposed to prevail, this is not always the case. For example, local governments in historically corrupt areas are less likely to be transparent before elections. That’s arguably a form of election interference. It’s said we get the government we deserve, and many say most people are too apathetic about politics to care. But people are apparently willing to pay much more than expected for hard hitting local journalism and coverage of politics, but even this unexpectedly high willingness to pay is still not enough to make local newspapers viable on digital subscriptions alone. And that’s bad for transparency, since a historically local journalism has been a backbone of keeping local governments honest.
Newspapers are atrange beast since they traditionally had a near monopoly on local information and reporting (if you wanted to know what was happening you needed to read the newspaper) and a near monopoly on classifieds and other local advertisements. This advertising chokehold in effect subsidized reporting. Many other businesses are built on a service subsidizing something else—Facebook is an advertising company that monetizes its userbase through ads, and the lottery subsidizes education in many states, ironically by attracting a usually lower-class customer base.
Americans seem to love taking risks. But not every risk is created equal. Not only do most startups fail, but most startup accelerators appear to actually create negative value. As in the stock market, where a huge percentage of gains are concentrated in tech stocks, in startups there are many losers and few winners. (Indeed, this is how venture capital works.) But power laws like this, where many lose and few win, are also commonplace in the lottery and betting markets. For every Powerball winner—or alleged winner—there are millions who contribute to the jackpot but never win it.
Startup culture mythologizes the scrappy, poor founder who works hard and makes it big. Lotteries do the same thing, in advertisements that suggest anyone could be a millionaire. But in reality, lotteries and sports betting are highly regressive in practice.
After sports betting was legalized, lower income, younger, and minority families were noticeably more likely to experience food insecurity. What that means in plain language is that poor people were losing money sports betting and their families were paying the price by going hungry. Other families, who can afford the losses, will lack experiences or advantages they’d otherwise have. Which is really sad.
America is leaning heavily into an ‘anything goes’ culture. We have prioritized freedom from interference—allowing cannabis, sports betting, and speculative markets to flourish—but we are neglecting the freedom to actually succeed. We have the liberty to bet our savings on a game, but we lack the structural support to ensure that those bets don’t result in food insecurity or systemic poverty
Speaking of societal costs, obesity is a real health epidemic that results in higher healthcare costs, less efficient transportation (heavier people take more energy to transport), and most importantly, less time alive for those affected. GLP-1’s like Ozempic are a revolution here, with a shocking12% percent of American’s taking these drugs and losing an estimated 20% of bodyweight—although some of this returns after stopping use. But there are other benefits that may bode well for society. It seems that something about GLP-1s break or at least moderate the link between impulsivity and violence. The drugs didn’t lower impulsivity itself; they seem to weaken how strongly it translates into violence. Other research and anecdotal reports suggest that Ozempic and Ozempic-like drugs may reduce the appetite for gambling and alcohol, which might disproportionately help the less well off.
Still, just as the United States spent millions on missiles and aircraft and bases that Iran targeted with cheap drones, the American high tech high cost method of solving problems is evident here.