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Michael Bateman's avatar

Regarding many of the claims about public belief made in this essay, you should keep in mind the Lizardman Constant (https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/). To quote the conclusion:

"When we’re talking about very unpopular beliefs, polls can only give a weak signal. Any possible source of noise – jokesters, cognitive biases, or deliberate misbehavior – can easily overwhelm the signal. Therefore, polls that rely on detecting very weak signals should be taken with a grain of salt."

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Jonathan Coopersmith's avatar

And don't forget the Fermi Paradox - https://www.space.com/25325-fermi-paradox.html

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