Really sharp analysis of the compellence vs occupation distinction. The Iraq comparison is sobering—avoiding the full regime-change disaster while still getting what you want is cynical but probably smarter. I hadnt thought about the religious/cultural angle before, but youre right that Catholic-to-Catholic is way different than Christian occupying Muslim. My big question is wheather Rodríguez and the leadership will actually bite on this deal or if they'll see it as just delaying the inevitable. Schelling's work on credible commitment is relevant here—hard to trust a threat that keeps escalating once you show weakness.
Really sharp analysis of the compellence vs occupation distinction. The Iraq comparison is sobering—avoiding the full regime-change disaster while still getting what you want is cynical but probably smarter. I hadnt thought about the religious/cultural angle before, but youre right that Catholic-to-Catholic is way different than Christian occupying Muslim. My big question is wheather Rodríguez and the leadership will actually bite on this deal or if they'll see it as just delaying the inevitable. Schelling's work on credible commitment is relevant here—hard to trust a threat that keeps escalating once you show weakness.
Thank you so much for such a kind comment. What do you think will happen if you had to guess?